Everything About Russia and Ukraine Conflict

There has been an ongoing and protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine since February 2014, involving primarily pro-Russian forces on the one hand and Ukrainian forces on the other. During the conflict, the status of Crimea and part of the Donbas has been a focus. Those territories are largely recognized internationally as part of Ukraine.

President Biden has said that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be one of the biggest events since World War II. So how did the situation between the two countries get to this point? What is Ukraine's significance in global politics? Are there any possible solutions to avoid a war?

Why was the conflict between Russia and Ukraine sparked? or

What is responsible for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

Around the end of the Soviet Union, Gorbachev and Bush were in negotiations regarding the issue, which sparked the conflict. As part of their politicking, the U.S. downplayed any potential NATO expansion outside the existing NATO countries. Particularly, the U.S. didn't make a big deal about NATO membership for Germany and former Warsaw Pact nations. There is no evidence, verbal or otherwise, that any promises were actually made. However, the Soviets chose to interpret this to mean that NATO would not be expanded. Although it submerged the big issues of European security for a while, both sides liked to pretend that we were all destined for a happy ending, something that many people genuinely believed.

The periphery of Russia has sought to separate itself from Moscow's influence over the past 30 years by joining NATO and the European Union. Their reasons for wanting integration into the West have varied. There are some countries with a history of conflict with Russia and continue to see themselves as belonging to the West from a cultural and political standpoint. Economic factors have played a larger role in some cases, while political factors play a stronger role in others, and integration with Europe has more of a transactional element.

There are still some Baltic states in NATO, but they are also joined by East European states such as the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and Montenegro, with North Macedonia being the newest member.

How did Russia arrive at this point after years of turmoil?

In 2014, Georgia and Ukraine, which had been in the Soviet Union but are now independent countries, joined the countries applying for membership in NATO. Due to the fact that during the 1990s, Russia was broke and focused on keeping together its government, and partially due to some miscalculations, the country was slow to oppose this expansion of Western influence. In the beginning, Russians perceived EU expansion and NATO expansion as qualitatively different. The EU was interpreted as purely economic and they were unaware that it complemented NATO membership as a political project. With membership in the EU, you lose not only your market to Russia but also your political sphere. Since as early as the Putin administration, they have been staunchly opposed to Western institutions, at least since Putin gave a famous speech in Munich in 2007.

In 2008, things began to turn around. Both Georgia and Ukraine received NATO's support in April of that year to begin their membership process. However, those plans fell apart by the summer. The Georgian invasion of South Ossetia, a Russian protectorate in northern Georgia, was an effort by the country to reintegrate territories lost during the civil war and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Russian troops drove them out and advanced almost to the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, before returning home. NATO countries were effectively shown that expanding into Georgia is not safe by doing so. Georgia has continued to receive military support from the West, but it has been unlikely that the country will join Western institutions. Ukraine has a similar situation.

In 2014 there was a revolution in Kiev, which is the Ukrainian version of the story. Like most Ukrainian presidents, Viktor Yanukovych was very corrupt when he was president. In addition, he sought to find a middle ground between Moscow and the EU. Yanukovych surrendered to Russian pressure and ultimately abandoned plans to join a trade agreement with the EU, spurring a revolution in Ukraine.

An important Russian base is located in Sevastopol, on the peninsula of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia early in this revolution. This is a place of long-standing military tradition for the Russians and their only major access to warm waters. Since they were not intending to let NATO take control of either the base or the rest of Crimea, they shocked everyone, in particular the West, by taking both quickly and effectively. Soon, pro-Russian uprisings broke out in several major Ukrainian cities.

Ukraine, whose government was caught completely unprepared due to its corruption and theft of defense budget money, didn't have an army to fight. As part of its effort to retake eastern Ukraine, it used militia groups funded by Ukrainian oligarchs. In response to this campaign, the Russians made their way into eastern Ukraine in support of the rebels. For the past eight years, it has basically been this way.

How has the situation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions changed since fighting began in 2014?

Unfortunately, since then, Ukraine has been in the midst of a low-level conflict that has left at least 14,000 people dead. European Union officials are attempting to reach an agreement. Many Ukrainians are tired of the conflict, which is reflected in the election of a new president in 2019. Talks, however, have led nowhere, with Russia displaying no real interest in reaching a long-term agreement or even in implementing the existing partial agreements. As a result of the conflict, Russia has received much of what is desired, which is why they are reluctant to negotiate and solve the problem. For the foreseeable future, the integration of Ukraine's remainder into NATO is also off the political agenda as with Georgia.

Although Russia remains deeply unsatisfied with Western expansion into countries they consider vital for their security, it remains deeply unhappy with the move. According to Putin, Russia is inducing a crisis now as a result of the need to rebuild Western Europe's political architecture in order to prevent the U.S. from deploying nuclear weapons and large numbers of troops on Russian borders. The Western expansion, in a sense, weakened the Russian strategic position significantly from the perspective of Russia. The West has also abandoned nearly all of the agreements that it has with Russia regarding nuclear weapons and conventional arms in Europe, either because they have been abandoned by the Russians or because the West has abandoned them as well. Today, there isn't much security infrastructure left from the Cold War period, or even the post-Cold War period, to help with maintaining peace in Europe.

The Russians can make many maneuvers to achieve the outcome they want, so building up their troops is one of them?

Certainly. It's a game for them. There has been a loss, so now is the right time to change things, to work out a new agreement where NATO agrees not to expand anymore, and to establish new agreements regarding conventional forces and nuclear weapons in Europe and new security infrastructure.

Russians know that this isn't their only option to defend their country. It is understandable that Russia would be concerned about its security if the possibility of it joining the West is eliminated. Not legitimately, but understandably. However, the U.S. can also argue that Ukraine and Georgia are sovereign nations. Their decision to join our team should be their own.

What is the final say in negotiations with Russia for those countries' leaders?

U.S. officials have taken that position. It is built around the idea that countries can choose their own alliances and the entire structure of international law is built around sovereign states. In this sense, the viewpoint is legitimate. There are legitimate security concerns for the Russians, but Ukraine should be free to choose its own future.

Ukraine must take part in the process. You always hear President Biden reiterating that there will be no discussions without Ukraine.

What's the situation between Russia and Ukraine?

Tony Blinken, Secretary of State, met with Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, bilaterally. Were the Ukrainians consulted before meeting with Blinken? Without a doubt. What about the Europeans? Undoubtedly. These people were not in the room on the day of this crucial meeting, which is interesting and significant in and of itself.

Ultimately, Russian foreign policy is based on a realist ethos. Protestations by the United States about ways to include the Ukrainians and Europeans are perceived by them as hollow. Washington holds the key to a deal, not anywhere else.

Did sanctions work, and are there any remaining sanctions that do anything?

U.S. and European sanctions against Russia have been pretty comprehensive since 2013, including both general sanctions and sanctions against specific individuals.

Russian economic growth is reduced by current sanctions relative to what it would be without them over the long term, but their impact on the broad population is minimal. US and EU sanctions are aimed at targeting individuals and companies of importance to powerful people in the regime through 'smart sanctions.' But the Russians are very smart.

In general, sanctions work quickly if they are going to work because, within a short period of time, your economy adapts. The ban on European cheeses, for example, has made it possible for new or existing Russian products to enter this market space. In fact, some argue that sanctions have helped the country's agricultural and food processing industries.

Could sanctions be tightened more? Truth be told, there are a lot of possibilities, but it could be very expensive. Does the West have the will to pay a high price to stop Russia from invading Ukraine?

The costliest project for the West is probably Nord Stream 2, which will transport Russian gas through Germany to Western Europe. There is a lot of oil in Russia. And gas is abundant there as well. During the winter months, imports of natural gas make up a significant portion of Germany's and many Eastern European countries' home heating expenses. Both sides benefit from this.

Secondly, there is the SWIFT system, which is used to process payments throughout the global financial network. As the SWIFT network is privately owned and run, cutting Russian access to it would have its own complications. The result would be that no electronic transactions would be made with the rest of the world. Russia's economy would be devastated, and the U.S. seems reluctant to act. There is some concern that Russian financial companies and banks will find alternatives that would be harmful to the U.S. financial system. Additionally, it could be that the United States doesn't want to play its last card before the game ends. There is always a next turn.

What is the probability of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

This is a very real possibility. The Americans were forced to negotiate with Russia. Blinken was forced to fly all over Europe. This caused everyone to discuss new security architectures in central Europe. There has been talking about a deal between us and them regarding missile placement. Russians have been trying to talk about all these topics for years, but have not been successful. Now everybody is dancing to the tune of the Russians because they have this card. As soon as they play that card, though, the game changes completely. This would become an enormous bet on the Russian military's ability to hold territory in Ukraine and Putin's whole regime would be put at risk.

Let's hope the Russians do not enter Ukraine. Russia is capable of causing trouble in a variety of ways. Cyberattacks by Russia have proven that they are capable of infiltrating key domestic systems. In addition, Russia has many different proxies and allies around the world - in Latin America, in Central Africa. While there is a range of things Russia could do to potentially cause a U.S. problem short of an invasion, there are some things that are less concerning. Because of this, it's important to know that even if there is no action on the ground as the invasion window closes in a few weeks, the issue of ensuring regional security remains.

Source:

Various News Articles

Wikipedia

Article From Scott Jared, The Well